US $ Reserve Currency?

I’ve held a view for some time that the US $ would lose its reserve currency status. This view was based upon a couple of points

• The geo-political environment in the last few years and expectations for the next ten

• The risks to sovereign nations and entities from operating in the US banking system

• The internal political and social issues in the US

• The continued rise of the China, India, and other parts of EMG in the production of EVERYTHING

•  The total amount of total US Currency in Circulation. Simple analysis – more of anything should lower the price of it absent other factors (demand/etc.)

What is fascinating and surprising to me is that the US $ has held up very well especially relative to Gold.

Gold really hasn’t increased in price given the inflationary environment we are seeing. It isn’t acting as an alternative currency:

We are having short term increases of the US $ in the last few months but it has been driven primarily by interest rate differentials: 

US$ to EURO:

Note the big pop since late 2021. It is a gradual decline since 2012. So something isn’t going well in the European Union.

USD to GBP:

Again, a long-term decline. The more recent action is being driven not only by inflation by because of the UK leaving the EU and its resulting effects as well poor central bank actions in the UK.

Am I wrong on my thinking or just way too early? Maybe a global decline occurs over a much longer period and needs another substitute before it declines. The inclination might be the Renminbi, but China has its own issues. I am not a believer in Bitcoin or other Crypto currencies. So, when, if ever, does the US $ lose is status?

Why has it held up so much?

• Is it a short-term phenomenon?

• Is there no place else to go?

• Is it because most major commodities (at least for now) are priced in US$

I can’t quite figure it out yet but in an environment where a global power is going through a multi-decade decline in its importance, I would not have expected to see this.